Tom Tuesdays!

2019 MLB Record: 35-25-2 +7.67u


6/10 Recap: 1-0-1 +2u

-Mets/Yankees u9.5 -110 1u: Push

-Rays -1 -140 2u: CASHED


6/11:

-Indians ML -125 1u (7pm)

-Pirates/Braves o9.5 -110 1u (7pm)

-Mariners ML +170 1u (8pm)

-Mariners/Twins o9.5 -120 1u (8pm)

-Nationals TT o5.5 -110 1u (8pm)


First time I’ve ever posted & written up 5 picks. Watch these go 0-5. Book it.

Let’s do INDIANS first:

Better team/hotter bats over worse team/colder bats. The SP matchup indeed favors Castillo from Cinci, but it’s not ridiculous or anything:

  • Castillo L4 starts: 19 IP, 3.72 ERA, 1.42 WHIP (yikes), .717 OPS against.
  • Bauer L4 starts: 27 IP, 4.33 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .718 OPS against.

The biggest thing here is that the Indians lost all 4 of these Bauer starts, whilst the Reds went 2-2. However, Cleveland is top-10 in the Majors in team OPS since June 1st, whilst Cincinnati is dead last w/r/t that stat. Additionally, the Indians hit slightly better against right-handers while Cinci hits slightly worse against right-handers. This could prove important in a battle of RH SPs.

Comparing the recent performances of the two bullpens, it’s essentially a wash. My hope is that Castillo continues to walk hitters like crazy (11 walks in his last 13 IP), and the top-10 Cleveland offense manages to out-hit the DFL Cinci offense. I got a feeling Bauer (who’s coming off an 8-inning performance against the Frank’s red-hot sauce red-hot Twins) and his support staff should be able to handle the most anemic/bulimic/whatever offense in the league. No fear Indians win 5-1.

“Hey T, what do you think about the PIRATES/BRAVES game!?!?”

I think Folty and Archer have been average-as-fuck in their L4 starts. Folty’s WHIP is pretty good, because he’s only walked ONE lad in his last 23 IP… but he’s still given up 21 hits in those 23 innings. Additionally, he’s posted a 3.9 ERA with a .830 OPS against. Archer’s got a 1.5 WHIP in his last 23 innings, also posting a .830 OPS against but with a significantly higher ERA: 4.7.

Braves are 1-3 in those Folty starts, while the Pirates are 2-2 in those Archer starts.

Meanwhile, the Pirates support staff has the worst ERA (6.78) and the worst WHIP (1.74) in the Majors during this month. ATL ranks 11th in both.

On the other side of the ball: During the month of June, ATL ranks 3rd in the Majors in team OPS (.862) whilst PIT ranks 8th in team OPS (.792). The Pirates also hit significantly better against right-handed pitching (hey Folty pitches with that hand).

It’s gonna be 80 degrees down in Atlanta today, and seems like at least one of these two top-10 offenses are going to put up some runs. Hopefully both! Braves win 7-4 NO FEAR.

Also, the Mariners are visiting the Twins tonight:

The Mariners at +170 is great value, in my not-so-humble opinion. In their L5 starts, Mike Leake has been just sliiiightly better than Martin Perez. Numbers below:

  • Leake L5 starts: 34 IP, 4.2 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 21 SOs to 7 BBs, .231/.268/.438 line against, SEA is 3-2 in those starts.
  • Perez L5 starts: 24 IP, 5.25 ERA, 1.708 WHIP, 21 SOs to 14 BBs, .276/.366/.449 line against, MIN is 2-3 in those starts.

Contrary to popular belief, there isn’t a staggering difference between the two offenses. Yes, Minnesota has been fucking unbelievable in the month of June, posting an OPS above .900 (1st in the Majors) and scoring 6.25 runs/game. Howeva (Stephen A. Smith voice), Seattle is checking in with an OPS above .800 (7th in the Majors), and they’re scoring 5.77 runs/game. These numbers become more interesting when you consider that the Twins OPS drops about 50 points against right-handed pitching (hey Mike Leake pitches with that hand).

These two top-10 offenses also happen to be hitting against two bottom-10 bullpens. Indeed, during the month of June, both the Mariners and the Twins pitching staffs rank in the bottom 10 in both ERA and WHIP. Which is why I firmly believe the OVER is also a good bet. Also the Twins have the ability to put up 15 runs by themselves at any point right now.

Mariners win, on the road, by a score of 23-17. Book it.

To conclude, the Nationals:

I’ll only focus on one side of the béisbol for this pick, because it’s pretty obvious: Manny Bañuelos STINKS.

Here’s the CHW SP L6 starts:

  • 9 runs over 2.2 innings v. BOS
  • 5 runs over 4.1 innings @ CLE
  • 5 runs over 4 innings v. CLE
  • 5 runs over 4 innings @ MIN
  • 3 runs over 5 innings v. CLE

If you do the quicc maths, those numbers add up to an 11.25 ERA. Additionally, he’s working with a 2.3 WHIP (what??) and a line against of .368/.461/.759 (holy christ). If you do more quicc maths, that means he’s posting an OPS against over 1.200 during the last month or so, which is staggering. The guy’s given up 10 dingers in his last 20 innings. Imagine being a starting pitcher in the Major Leagues and giving up a ding-dong every other inning. Send this guy back to double-A.

Their bullpen is below average. CHW pen ranks 19th in ERA (4.96), 18th in WHIP (1.29), and 17th in OPS against (.753) during the month of June.

The Nationals team-OPS v. left-handers (Manny Bañuelos) is .837, which is significantly better than both the league average and significantly better than their team-OPS v. right-handers. The Nats have the 5th-highest team OPS during the month of June, and are driving in 5.75 runs/game during that period.

The Nats aren’t a great team, but they’re 7-3 in their L10 games, winning their last 3 series, and those bats should be able to get going against fucking Manny Bañuelos and a below-average supporting cast. A) That guy blows, B) The White Sox blow, and C) Nats win 7-3 no fear.


On today’s date in 1776, the First Continental Congress formed a committee, made up of Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, Benjamin Franklin, Roger Sherman, and Robert R. Livingston, to draft a Declaration of Independence.

On today’s date in 2019, we form a committee to draft a Declaration of Fuck Your Bookmaker In The Ass. Washington would be proud. BOL Tail or Fade don’t care.