(The answer to the question posed above is me. I would enjoy that life.)
2019 MLB Record: 21-8 +10.97u
Adding to 4/10 Card:
No Run 1st Inning Yankees/Astros -115 1u (730pm)
After posting a brilliantly well-written, inspirational, hilarious, and quality blog yesterday on this very topic, my heart was shattered once the Nationals fucking leadoff hitter scored, in the top of the 1st, on a Bryce Harper error in right field. It really fucked the night, cuz you can’t end well if you don’t start well every1 knows that.
However, here’s my chance to redeem myself, and show the world why there is no better feeling than winning a No Run 1st Inning bet.
Yankees/Astros tonight. The ‘stros have taken the first two of this series at home, much to my chagrin, by a total of 4 runs.
The Yankees scored last night in the top of the 1st. But, I like them not to score tonight in the top of the 1st because of this kid Collin McHugh. Last year, in a relief role with HOU, he put up stellar numbers. An ERA a hair under 2-flat and a WHIP a hair over .900-flat, additionally striking out 94 batters in 72 innings of work. His first two outings this season have been grand. Over 5 innings pitched, he gave up 2 runs on 3 hits to the Rays. Next, over 6 innings of work, he gave up 1 run on 3 hits to the A’s. 2 starts: 11ip, 2.45 ERA, .909 WHIP, 13 Ks.
But, the most important McHugh stat? No runs given up in the first inning in either of those starts. Plus, moving into a starter role from a relief role, I would expect him to flounder later in the game rather than at the start. If his original job was to come in and get a few guys out, and he was excellent at that job, I could very easily see him going 1,2,3 here.
James Paxton is on the mound for the Yankees. We all know what Paxton can do, as he was stellar last year for the Mariners. He’s faced HOU batters for almost 200 ABs in his career, yielding a ~.250 average. What scares me is that, in his last start, he gave up 3 runs to BAL in the first inning. On the road.
However, I believe there is solid value in this play at -115. And I love No Run 1st Inning plays more than I love my own mother (JK mom if you’re reading this). Therefore, final answer: No fear. (But i’m not putting 2u on it this time.)