2019 MLB Record: 47-46-5 -4.22u
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
NYY +165, BOS -180
u10 -110, o10 -110
NYY +1.5 -120, BOS -1.5 +100
I know this is betting on a wicked juicy home team, which is generally very dumb. But I got a hunch.
Sale has put together back-to-back quality winning efforts for essentially the first time this season. Sale went 6 deep last time out at The Trop, throwing just 1 bad pitch out of 116 which resulted in a 2-run ding dong which produced the only runs he gave up in that outing. The start prior that, he tossed 6 shutout in Fenway against the flailing Blue Jays, only giving up 2 hits while striking out 12.
On the topic of strikeouts, Sale has more than any pitcher in the Majors right now. He has nearly twice as many as his adversary today, Domingo German. The Yankees have won 4 consecutive Domingo starts and are 14-3 when his number gets called (German is 12-2 in decisions).
However, German got shelled in his last outing @ Minnesota, giving up 8 runs on 9 hits over 3 and 2/3rds. Additionally, in his last outing against the defending World Series Champions, German got shelled (kinda). On 6/1 at Yankee Stadium, he gave up 3 runs on 6 hits over 3 and 2/3rds in a game in which the Yankees won.
The way the Red Sox have been hitting this series, I don’t see the Yanks winning this German start. This Sox lineup is collectively hitting .313 with an .809 OPS against German over his career. Additionally, German is not the same pitcher when he has to sleep in a hotel room rather than his own bed. While he’s 6-1 on the road, all his numbers are worse when he hits the road. His ERA jumps three-and-a-half points, as he’s literally given up three times as many runs on the road as he has at home. His WHIP jumps from 1-flat to upwards of 1.2, as he’s given up 20 extra hits on the road over 7 extra innings pitched. On the road v. at home, he’s struck out 12 less batters, given up 8 more dingers, and his BA against jumps 60 points.
I’ll ignore the recent hitting stats, as these last three games have skewed those numbers towards BOS. While Sale has had two bad outings against the Yanks this year, historically he’s been good. These Bronx Bats are collectively hitting only .220 with a .613 OPS against Sale over their careers.
The Red Sox opened at -165. Over 70% of the tickets and the money are on the Yankees, and the Sox have moved to -180. The public is all over New York tonight thinking they’ll manage to avoid the sweep, and Vegas is giving them a better price. Something smells fishy, and I think it’s all the fuckin’ fish betting on the Yanks.
Which is while I’ll fade the public, take the reverse line movement, and Hammer the Red Sox ML into oblivion.
Pick: Red Sox ML -180 5u
Leans: BOS -1.5, u10