Saturday Mid-Afternoon Fever

2019 MLB Record: 39-36-3 -.67u


(Last day bet) 6/14 Recap: 1-2-0 -1.11u

-Brewers ML -136 1u: Not Cashed

-Phillies ML +125 1u: Not Cashed

-Rangers ML +150 1u: CASHED


6/22:

-Padres ML -115 1u (4pm)

-Padres/Pirates o9 +100 1u (4pm)

-Rays/A’s u9 +100 1u (4pm)

-Reds ML +110 1u (4pm)


The Pittsburgh Pirates are not good at playing baseball.

They’ve now dropped back to DFL (dead fucking last) in their division with a putrid -76 run differential. However, their bats have been… OK. During the month of June, the Pirates have the 10th-best team OPS in the Majors (.780). While that team OPS number drops off in terms of their L7 days, the Pirates hit significantly better against right handed pitchers.

And they will be facing one tonight in Chris Paddack. Who has 3 losses in his last 4 starts while posting a 5.75/1.35 ERA/WHIP and letting up a .885 OPS against (over 20.1 IP).

His adversary today, Chris Archer, hasn’t been any better. While the Pirates have won 3 of his last 4 starts, he has posted a 6.00/1.46 ERA/WHIP and a .937 OPS against (over 24 IP).

Archer will be tossing against a team who has posted a team OPS of .865 over the last 7 games, good for 7th in the league. If you expand that time-frame to the entire month of June, that number does drop to .780, but that number also is still good for 14th in the Majors. During their recent stretch, the Padres been averaging well over 6 runs/game, which includes a series where they swept Christian Yelich and the Brewers!

Conclusion: These are two teams that have been good at scoring runs, attempting to score runs against pitchers that have been good at letting hitters score runs. However, the Pirates are worse at playing the game of baseball than the Padres are, and I expect Manny Machado to out-hit Melky Cabrera on their way to a high-scoring WIN.

Yonny Chirinos and Mike Fiers are, in my humble opinion, two of the more underrated pitchers pitching in Major League baseball today.

Over their last 4 starts, both pitchers have ERA’s below 3 and WHIP’s around 1-flat. The total has gone under 9 in the Rays’ last 4 games that Yonny started. The total has gone under 9 in 3 of the last 4 A’s games that Fiers has started. Fun fact of the day: The last time Mike Fiers gave up more than 3 runs in a start was April 20th! (In that same time-frame, Yonny has given up more than 3 runs in a start just once).

Additionally, the Rays still have a stellar supporting pitching staff. AND, over the last 7 days, the A’s have the 4th-best ERA and the 2nd-best WHIP in the Majors. So, yeah, the bullpens are going to be OK.

Tampa Bay has the 9th-worst team OPS during the month of June (.715), and the 2nd-worst team OPS in the last 7 days (.580). Oakland has been hitting much better than that, but their team OPS drops a ridiculous 150 points when they have to face right handed pitching instead of left (hey Yonny pitches with that hand).

Conclusion: Two good starting pitchers with two good supporting casts. The Rays offense has been dismal recently, and the A’s can’t hit right handed pitching. A’s win in a low-scoring game.

I have been fading the Cincinnati Reds all season. It has been about the furthest thing from profitable I can think of.

Luis Castillo, despite walking a shitton of guys in his last 4 starts, is still an incredible pitcher who is 7-1 in his decisions. Meanwhile, the Brewers have lost Jhoulys Chacin’s last FIVE starts. In a row. He just recently gave up 7 runs over 2.2 innings to the Pirates. Y I K E S. The numbers only get worse from there.

Once both starters are done with their starts, the Reds bullpen has been outperforming the Brewers bullpen all season long. Over the last 7 days, the Reds rank 2nd in the majors in terms of WHIP, while the Brewers rank 2nd-to-last in terms of WHIP. Expand that time-frame to the whole month of June, and the Reds are still a top-10 pitching staff while the Brewers are still a bottom-10 pitching staff.

Finally, here are the offenses last 7 games:

  • Reds: A line of .266/.368/.493, which adds up to a .861 OPS (8th-best in the Majors), with 12 dingers and 113 total bases, whilst knocking in 6 runs/game.
  • Brewers: A line of .227/.321/.406, which adds up to a .727 OPS (22nd-best in the Majors), with 11 dingers and 93 total bases, whilst knocking in 4 runs/game.

Conclusion: This is no contest. Luis Castillo has been pitching better than Jhoulys Chacin. The Reds bullpen has been pitching better than the Brewers bullpen. The Reds lineup has been slamming more baseballs and scoring more runs than the Brewers lineup. Reds win 5-2.


Extra: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will cover the 4.5-point spread against the Toronto Argonauts. The most heated rivalry in all of Canadian Football kicks off today at 4pm EST, and you’re gonna need to gamble on it if you’re going to be even remotely interested. Toronto sucks. I bet you don’t even know where Hamilton is (disclaimer: I don’t but i’m vaguely aware it is a geographical place on this plane of existence).

BOL Tail or Fade don’t care.