Monday

2019 MLB Record: 34-25-1 +5.67u


6/9 (nice) Recap: 1-0 +1u

-Mariners/Angels o10.5 -110 1u: CASHED


6/10:

-Mets/Yankees u9.5 -110 1u (7pm)

-Rays -1 -140 2u (7pm)


Jason Vargas and Masahiro Tanaka are both on a mini hot streak.

Especially the lefty Vargas, who has posted a 1.8/1.04 ERA/WHIP over his last 4 starts, only allowing a .216/.268/.318 line against. Against pretty good teams too! He only allowed 3 runs on 3 hits against MIL, and only allowed 1 run on 6 hits against LAD. He also just tossed a complete game shutout against the Giants in a 7-zip winning effort. Bravo!

Tanaka, in his last 5 starts, has an ERA under 3 and a WHIP around 1-flat. He’s twice held the red-hot Rays to 1 run or less, and only slipped up against the Padres on May 28th. Bravo!

Both teams have posted decent OPS’s in the month of June, with the Mets checking in at 10th in the league and the Yankees at 16th. However, in terms of runs scored in the month of June, the Yankees check in at 15th (4.9 runs/game) and the Mets at 20th (4.4 runs/game). FURTHERMORE, the Mets team OPS drops against righties (hey Masahiro Tanaka throws with that hand) and the Yankees team OPS drops against lefties (hey Jason Vargas throws with that hand).

I’m back and forth on this bet:

  • A.) Pro: The Yankees pen is so fucking good.
  • B.) Con: The Mets pen isn’t that good.
  • C.) Con: Both offenses can score runs, especially the Yankees.

Therefore, i’m gonna double down on this Rays pick. The Rays are a Wagon. The Tampa Boys just stole 3 of 4 from the Red Sox, in Fenway, in dominating fashion. They are somehow, someway, tied for the division lead in arguably the toughest division in baseball.

And Charlie Morton is on the mound today. The former Astro has been en fuego recently. Over his last 8 starts, he’s tossed 47 and 2/3rds innings whilst posting a 1.7/1.0 ERA/WHIP and a .192/.265/.302 line against. During that stretch, Morton is 5-0 in decisions and the Devil Rays are 6-2 in those starts (covering the RL in all 6 of those wins).

He’s facing off against a no-name Harvard graduate named Tanner Anderson, who’s making his first EVER Major League start. He had a bunch of relief appearances for the Pirates last year, and was actually pretty good after his disgusting Major League debut.

But I digress. Here are a bunch of reasons why I will be betting heavy on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays today:

  • TB ranks 6th in the Major Leagues in team OPS during the month of June (.804), whilst OAK ranks 15th (.737).
  • Two righty pitchers on the mound today, and OAK’s OPS drops a bunch v. righties whilst TB’s OPS is a decent amount higher against righties.
  • TB’s pitching staff is legit nuts, as they rank 3rd in the Majors in WHIP and 1st in ERA; meanwhile, OAK is
  • TB has the 3rd-best run differential in the Majors, at +96; compared to OAK’s cowardly +22 run differential.

Extra:

  • Cardinals ML -138 looks muy bueno but Sandy Alcantara has been looking kinda decent lately and the Cards are barely treading water. I understand the Marlins are bad, but their bats have been batting better as of late.
  • Warriors ML +100 Kd?

BOL Tail or Fade don’t care No Fear.