Let’s Fuck This Monday Right

2019 MLB Record: 19-2-0 +17.36u

4/8:

Brewers ML -112 1u (10pm)

Mariners -1.5 +125 1u (8pm)

Dodgers ML -117 1u (730pm)


4/7 Recap: 4-0-0 +4.25u

Mariners ML -110 1u: CASHED

  • Ho Hum Mariners scored another billion runs and won.
  • Scored 29 runs in this series v. ChiSox.

Indians -1.5 +1.25 1u: CASHED

  • The Indians bats still can’t really score runs but, as I expected, Clevinger was electric again, only allowing one hit on 5ip w/ 10 Ks. Bananas.
  • Note to self: I think the Blue Jays are bad.

Nationals ML -133 1u: CASHED

  • Jesus christ the Mets walked like 15 batters.
  • I can’t believe the game ended up that close. The Mets are always fucking around with that shit late in games.

Rays ML -123 1u (late addition): CASHED

  • The Rays are a WAGON.
  • The Rays have the best pitching staff in the league right now. Combined ERA this season is below 2, a full half-point less than 2nd-place DET. They’ve also got a pretty solid .194 BAA, but more importantly, the lowest WHIP in the league at .91. Yonny in particular looked great last night. High release point, strong finish, and a pretty fucking overall good shutout performance.

Brewers:

Gonna really love betting on Yelich and the BrewCrew this year. But I’ve also already made money betting on Jholys ChacĂ­n this year. Anddddd, he’s 2-0 with an ERA about 4 and a WHIP about 1.000. Plus, I still think he posted really solid numbers last year: 3.5 ERA w/ WHIP about 1.000, going 15-8 overall.

The Angles are throwing out one of their better starters in Trevor Cahill. He’s had a solid first couple of starts, posting an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP well under 1.000. Last year he had slightly worse numbers than Jholys, 3.75 ERA and 1.200 WHIP. Angels were 13-8 in games he started last season.

I’m gonna gamble on the MIL bats outhitting the Angels bats (excluding Trout lol). Brewers team OPS is 7th-best in the league, while LAA’s is 24th in the league. Yah, the Angels are coming off of a 3-game sweep of the Rangers at home, and the Brewers are gonna have to go to LA after that, but LAA is still only 4-6 while the Brewers continue to be red hot at 8-2.

I think there’s pretty solid value at -112 for a really good team to beat a really-meh-to-really-bad team. No fear BrewCrew for life #ILoveChristianYelich.

Mariners:

I don’t usually like to bet a team b2b nights, but I can’t help myself with the Mariners today. There’s just too much I like about this matchup.

Pitching for the Royals today is righty Homer Bailey. Who, despite looking like Christian Bale in the Batman movies, somehow loses games he pitches at an unprecedented rate. In 2018, the Kansas City Royals were somehow an incredible 1-19 in games that he started. I can’t believe the Royals kept starting him after he posted an ERA over 6 and a WHIP over 1.600.

But of course, he hasn’t posted an ERA under 6 since 2015, and hasn’t posted a WHIP under 1.600 since 2014.

Felix Hernandez, the righty tossing for SEA today, isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed either. Guy went 8-14 last year with a 5.5 ERA and a 1.400 WHIP. He threw pretty well in his first start, though.

Anyways, I’m not sure if the pitching matchups matter, because the SEA bats are so wildly hot right now they could probably post a double-digit performance on Kenny Powers (during his heyday of course). Most runs scored in the league, second-highest OPS in the league, most total bases in the league, most HR’s and RBI’s in the league, etc. Royals bats are below-average. 21st-best OPS in the league currently. Given how much SEA has been scoring, I think if you like them today might as well gamble that they score the extra run and win by 2.

Final point: Mariners are 9-2 and maybe the hottest team in the league, Royals are 2-6 and just the same old Royals. But, moreover, when the Royals lose at the rate they do with Homer on the mound, I’m always down to fade them.

Dodgers:

Cody Bellinger might just be my new favorite player in the league, and he 100% is the MVP of the young season. The guy can’t stop hitting! He’s leading the league in hits (20), HRs (7), RBIs (18), BA (.455), SLG (1.023), and OPS (1.529). And, obviously, has the most total bases in the league right now at 45.

Now, obviously, the Dodgers continue to have the best offense in baseball, by quite a large margin. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 15th in the league in team OPS, plus that drops all the way to 27th when they face lefties (hey Hyun-Jin Ryu pitches with that hand). Meanwhile, when the Dodgers face right handed pitchers (hey Miles Mikolas pitches with that hand), their team OPS somehow miraculously jumps by almost 100 points.

Now, what does worry me about this game is the Cardinals sending out their ace Mikolas. Gotta get a win at home when your Ace is on the mound. But i’m taking a little bit of a gamble here, by betting a really hot pitcher against a shaky one. Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-0 this season, giving up only 3 runs off 10 hits (and 0 BBs) in 13 innings of work, good for a 2-flat ERA and a WHIP around .750. Also, his numbers last year were actually fairly bananas: 7-3, 1.97 ERA, 1.000-flat WHIP, and struck out 89 over 82 innings of work.

Mikolas had one hell of a year last year. But so far he has not had a solid start to the season. In his first start, he gave up 5 runs, on 3 homers, over 5 innings. Then, in his second start, he proceeded to give up another 3 runs on 7 hits, and another dinger, over another measly 5 innings. He has not had a solid start to the season, and now he has to face the best lineup in baseball… Hmmmmmm.

Dodgers continue their hot start in St. Louis. No fear.


Not super confident in the card today to be completely honest but you know what, fuck Mondays I need this shit. Got a long week ahead of us and there isn’t much more we can do but sit back, strap in, throw our traytables up and our seats in their upright position, and Hammer down. BOL tail or fade don’t care.

Ps- Extra:

  • Yankees ML +135 as a Dog of the Day is very peculiar to me. On one hand, the Astros have been a little iffy and the Yankees just came off of a dominating series against the Orioles. On the other hand, the Astros just swept the A’s, and the Yankees dominated the Orioles lol. Finally, Verlander on the mound is tough to bet against. If anything it could be a nice value bet.
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders ML -105 1 million units. By my very precise and complex mathematical complications, TTU has a 0% chance to lose this game. Lubbock burns down because tonight, we are all Red Raiders.