Bounceback Thursday

2019 MLB Record: 37-32-3 +1.63u

6/12 Recap: 0-5 -5.94u (Y I K E S)

-Rays -1.5 +125 1u

-Indians ML -134 1u

-Braves -1.5 -110 1u

-Cardinals -1.5 -110 1u

-Astros ML -127 1u


In addition to these awful picks, I also bet the Bruins, and had a RedSox/Cubs/Bruins ML Parlay. 0-7 hump day Y I K E S.


-Tigers ML -119 1u (8pm)

-Diamondbacks ML -123 1u (7pm)

-Rangers/RedSox F5 u4.5 +100 1u (7pm)

The Tigers Matt Boyd > The Royals Homer Bailey. I love fading Homer Bailey, and I actually think this is a prime time to do it. Check out the two SP’s L4 starts:

  • Matt Boyd: 24 IP, 2.25 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, .258/.280/.412 line against, and a wild 32 Ks to a meager 2 BBs for a staggering K/BB ratio of 16/1.
  • Homer Bailey: 15 IP, 7.47 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .313/.375/.516 line against, and only 13 Ks to 6 BBs for a very-average K/BB ratio of 2/1.

The Detroit bats have been slightly better than Kansas City’s this month, and the team OPS numbers v. L/R pitching are essentially a wash. Additionally, the bullpen numbers this month are also essentially a wash.

Therefore, I’m all in on the starting pitching matchup today. Getting back to basics, thinking Matt Boyd will outpitch Homer Bailey on the road & the Tigers will steal 2 of 3 in this series.

Similarly, Zach Greinke has been slightly better than Eric Fedde recently. In his last 4 starts, Greinke is working with a WHIP under 1 and an ERA just above 2, all while only allowing a .581 OPS against.

Meanwhile, in his last 4 starts, Eric Fedde’s OPS against is about 200 points higher. His ERA/WHIP in those 4 starts is still a very respectable 2.7/1.3.

The offenses have posted pretty much identical numbers through the month of June. However, the Diamondbacks are coming off of the more difficult series, wherein they took 2 of 3 from the Phillies, in Flip-a-delphia. Whilst the Nats split their series with the White Sox in Chi-raq.

Both teams are 7-3 in their L10, but the Diamondbacks are the better overall team, and Greinke is the better overall pitcher. Diamondbacks win 5-2 NO fear.

In their L5 starts, both Adrian Sampson and David Price have an ERA under 2 and a WHIP around 1-flat. David Price has been nails, and Adrian Sampson has also been nails.

The offenses both scare me, because they can both be scary at times. But, in terms of team OPS during the month of June, the Rangers and RedSox check in at 14th and 15th in the Majors. But, bringing things back around to Sampson and Price, both of them have gone at least 5 innings in their L5 starts, and each of them have only given up more than 1 run once during those starts.

I’m only gonna take the F5 under because the RedSox bullpen really scares me. They are so bad. I think the whole game could stay under as well, but I ain’t gonna force it.

BOL Tail or Fade don’t care.