2019 MLB Record: 44-43-5 -3.82u
-Braves ML -200 1u (1:20pm)
-Phillies ML -105 1u (1:10pm)
-Phillies/Mets No Run 1st Inning -130 1u (1:10pm)
-Cardinals/Giants o8 -110 1u (4:05pm)
Really, really love this Braves team.
The Braves sit atop the NL East standings, currently with a comfortable 6-game lead on the 2nd place Nationals. They’re also 18.5 games up on their opponents today: the Miami Marlins.
Kuechal has had 3 starts so far this year:
- 6/22: 3 Runs on 8 Hits over 5 innings in a Losing effort against Washington.
- 6/26: 3 Runs on 8 Hits over 5.2 innings in a Winning effort against Chicago.
- 7/2: 2 Runs on 5 Hits over 7 innings in a Losing effort against Philadelphia.
Those are serviceable outings. Can you tell me what the common theme between these three teams are? Over the month of June, all three teams posted a team-OPS higher than the Miami Marlins did.
The Marlins offense has only gotten worse, too. During July, they’ve scored only 10 runs over 5 games, notching a team OPS of .652 over that stretch. They are 1-4 in those games and 3-7 in their last 10 (which does include these last 2 games against ATL, which they split).
Therefore, one would expect Dallas should keep these Marlins at bay (lol). And hopefully he’ll get the needed run support from his offense to snag the series W. The Braves have been knocking the ball around in recent games, posting a team-OPS of .830 in the month of June.
They also shouldn’t have a problem scoring on Trevor Richards. The Marlins have lost his last 5 starts, with Trevor posting a 5.2/1.5 ERA/WHIP and a OPS against closing in on .900. Those games include his last outing against ATL, where he only gave up one earned over 7 pitched.
That doesn’t worry me too much. Braves should win this game without too much trouble.
The new-look Phillies have been largely a disappointment. Aaron Nola, however, has posted 5 consecutive quality starts:
- Nola L5 starts: 2.38 ERA, .911 WHIP, .171/.250/.268 line against which = .522 OPS against, and the Phillies are 3-2 in those starts.
That stretch includes a gem of a last outing, where he tossed 8 shutout against ATL in a 2-0 winning effort.
His adversary today, Zack Wheeler, has had a slightly worse L5 outings. He’s posted an ERA about a point and a half higher, a OPS against about 200 points higher, a whip about .4 higher, and the Mets are 2-3 in those starts.
Comparing the recent efforts of the two team’s offenses and bullpens, it’s essentially a wash. I think the Phillies Ace makes the difference here in a tight win.
A couple of last things I want to point out…
Both of these teams rank in the bottom-10 of the league in terms of team-OPS during the month of July.
Zack Wheeler, despite performing slightly worse than Nola has recently, has tossed three straight gems in a row. That includes a start against the Phillies on 6/27, where him and Nola kept the game scoreless for five straight innings.
I think both pitchers are going to start the start the game off strong… Specifically, I think they both go 1-2-3 in the 1st. Both offenses will be powerless to do anything.
This game features the beyond-mediocre starting pitching matchup OF: Jack Flaherty and Jeff Samardzija. Besides having complex and dumb names, can you tell me what the common theme is between these two pitchers?
They both have sucked dick in their last 5 outings. Jeff has an ERA/WHIP of 5.83/1.45, and Jack has an ERA/WHIP of 7.82/1.68. The teams are a combined 3-7 in those 10 starts, and both starting pitchers have given up a ton of runs in the process.
To make things even more juicy, the Cards and the Giants are both top-10 in the league in team-OPS during the month of July (SFG is 2nd w/ .947, and STL is 6th w/ .879). The Giants have scored 8.4 runs/game during that stretch, and the Cards have scored 5.4 runs/game during that stretch.
The Bullpens both have FIPs over 4. Taking that last point into consideration, I did some quicc maths in my head:
Two bad starting pitchers + top-10 offenses + average bullpens = an o/u of 8 runs?? No way jose i’m predicting a 7-5 final score or some shit like that.
You hear that? That’s the over baby. Cash it.